Labor market: Is the big wave of layoffs coming?

Various companies are currently struggling with a sharp increase in employee turnover. For this reason, ValueQuest refreshed a study from October 2019 and surveyed 600 employees in German-speaking Switzerland again in April 2022 on job satisfaction and employee motivation. This allows the statements immediately before and after the end of the pandemic to be compared.

Little change in employee motivation

At first glance, employee motivation has hardly changed. In 2019, 42% of employees were highly motivated; currently, this figure is even slightly higher at 43%. At 21%, the proportion of employees with low motivation has also not changed compared to 2019.

However, if we look at the changes by company size in the tables below, we can see that employees in smaller companies are generally much more motivated than those in larger companies. However, motivation among employees in smaller companies in particular has decreased slightly compared to 2019, while it has increased significantly in large companies (250+ employees).

		Company size
2019		1-9 persons (n=82)	10-49 persons (n=142)	50-249 persons (n=145)	250+ persons (n=246)
Motivation	% high	65%	46%	44%	31%
Satisfaction	% high	65%	48%	48%	34%
Commitment	% high	60%	42%	39%	30%
	Quantity	82	142	145	246

 

		Company size
2022		1-9 persons (n=60)	10-49 persons (n=116)	50-249 persons (n=148)	250+ persons (n=288)
Motivation	% high	60%	47%	33%	44%
Satisfaction	% high	58%	52%	38%	49%
Commitment	% high	58%	45%	32%	39%
	Quantity	60	116	148	288

One reason for the increase in employee motivation at larger companies could be the opportunity to work from home "forced" by the pandemic.

Hardly any change in willingness to give notice

The chart above shows that the likelihood of changing jobs has decreased slightly compared to 2019. In general, there are few changes in the intention to change jobs globally.

Clearer differences in the comparison by age category and seniority

Looking at the intention to switch by age group, a very different picture emerges.

Age group		2019	2022
Up to 25 years (n=93)	Share with high intention to switch	21%	22%
26-35 years (n=357)	Share with high intention to switch	26%	22%
36-45 years (n=315)	Share with high intention to switch	14%	16%
46-55 years (n=273)	Share with high intention to switch	15%	16%
56+ years (n=208)	Share with high intention to switch	12%	13%

As the table clearly shows, younger people up to the age of 35 have a much greater tendency to change jobs than employees aged 36 and over. However, this was already the case before the pandemic. Employees who are relatively new to a company are also more likely to leave:

The figure above also shows that the likelihood of "new" employees changing jobs increased significantly in 2022. Employee motivation has a major influence on this. 41% of employees with low motivation had a high intention to switch in 2022, compared to 37% in 2019.

Employee turnover can be predicted

A professional employee survey is a good way of predicting staff turnover. ValueQuest calculates a probability of dismissal for each person based on the employees' responses. For reasons of anonymity, these responses are not shown for individuals, but for the organization as a whole as well as for individual areas and departments. Long-term comparisons show that these probabilities are very relevant.

Over a period of two years, up to 70% of employees with a high risk of dismissal actually leave the company. Based on the results of the employee survey, companies have the opportunity - and at the same time the challenge - to take timely measures to retain and motivate the employees concerned.

Conclusion

Overall, there has been little change in employees' intention to change jobs or their willingness to leave during the coronavirus pandemic. The fact that many companies are currently experiencing higher turnover is primarily due to opportunities on the labor market. During the pandemic, it was too risky for many employees to change jobs. At the same time, companies were cautious about creating new jobs.

It is still true that employee motivation is the main driver of employee loyalty. Employee motivation is therefore a key task for management. A professionally conducted employee survey helps management to obtain important information at an early stage and to align management, culture and processes in such a way that maximum employee motivation and loyalty can be achieved.